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Powell's Inflation Warning Drives 10-Year Treasury Yields to Breakout Level

Bowing to recent data, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday conceded that inflation progress has stalled and the case for rate cuts has weakened.The Treasury market has been effectively...

Treasury Market Bets Against Fed as Inflation Persists

The market continues to price the US 10-year Treasury yield well above its estimated “fair value,” based on the average of three models run by CapitalSpectator.com.Yesterday’s...

Now Is Not the Time to Buy Bonds

The fundamental outlook for bonds remains questionable at best. The leading indicators of growth and inflation for 2024 suggest both dynamics could put upside pressure on yields. Sentiment toward...

Is the Worst Over for Bonds?

The bond market has struggled to fully recover from the Federal Reserve’s aggressive run of interest-rate hikes in 2022-2023, but pockets of strength remain conspicuous. Within the fixed-income...

10-Year Bond Yields Testing Key Resistance This Month: Breakout in the Cards?

The 10-year treasury bond yield is very closely watched by banks, consumers, and active investors. It is used as a measuring stick for interest rates on loans, bond auctions, etc. When the...

Bond Market Asset Class Annual Returns – Rate Cuts?

With the FOMC meeting announcement this coming Wednesday, March 29th, 2024, and Wall Street and the investment community still talking about potential interest rate cuts, it can’t be helped but...

10 Year Treasury Yield: Downside Bias Lingers Despite Hot CPI Report

The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to trade well above a ‘fair value’ estimate, based on the average of three models maintained by CapitalSpectator.com.The market premium continues to...

A Structural ECB Bond Portfolio to Benefit EGBs

By Benjamin SchroederOverall, we think the bearish sentiment can keep going in the near term. For markets, the main focus remains on the assessment of the US macro backdrop, with plenty of data this...

Rates Spark: Safer in Bunds Than Treasuries

Even if US yields do slip into the weekend, as is quite possible, there are elements next week that will keep the bear phase element to the fore for bonds (watch core PCE carefully). The ECB simply...

10-Year Yield: Why the Hot Inflation Bounce Didn't Last

Yesterday I outlined the case that several ‘fair-value’ models suggest the current US 10-year Treasury yield appears high relative to the fundamentals.As a quick follow-up, what does a...

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